Syria's WMDs

[Reynolds357]

On the flip side, the 10% of Syria that are Alwaites have been oppressing the other 90% for decades. He might conclude that it's their survival he's fighting for and go all apocalyptic.

I still think mother Russia is coming to the rescue.

[Fenris]

I still think mother Russia is coming to the rescue.

Russian troops fighting for Assad?

[Reynolds357]

Russian troops fighting for Assad?

No. Proxy through Iran. Russia backs Iran and Iran will be all too happy to jump in. Russia's security council veto vote could be very useful at the moment.

[Fenris]

Oh proxy, yeah. I'd wager that Iranians and Hizbullah are already in Syria fighting for the regime.

[NHL Fever]

I thought Libya was a NATO operation not a UN one?

No there was a security council resolution passed protecting Libyan citizens, resolution 1973, the 'no fly zone'. UN peacekeepers are the stand-around-and-do-nothing army, but for offense they use NATO. Russia agreed to the no-fly zone, but it turned into a no drive zone...and a no walk zone....and a no sit there manning AA gun zone...and ultimately was air power for Libyan rebels. Russia was really ticked off and felt they got bait-and-switched on that, and now they are quite wary of getting on board again.

Keep in mind that this is the first time ever that Syria has officially claimed to have stockpiles of chemical weapons. Prior to this even their existence was speculation. So yes, now the question needs to be raised, did they get the weapons from Iraq? So suddenly all those reports of convoys of trucks and aircraft streaming into Syria before the invasion hold a lot more water than before.

My guess is Bashar will fall, a couple of depots will be found with the makings of some weapons but no armed weapons capable of delivery, and it will be all over the news for months. Then we will never know what he had, or if he had the the ability to deliver them in a weapon, and pundits will speculate forever about it.

On the flip side, the 10% of Syria that are Alwaites have been oppressing the other 90% for decades. He might conclude that it's their survival he's fighting for and go all apocalyptic.

Oh ya. It's Rwanda time for the Alawites if they lose. Trying to figure out how to prevent this has been a major goal of foreign powers.

Oh proxy, yeah. I'd wager that Iranians and Hizbullah are already in Syria fighting for the regime.

What's fascinating about this, is how the players are all lining up. We tend to think of all the Muslim groups as one big monolithic bad. But many of them hate each other too. There are now rumors of Al-Qaeda In Syria in areas of rebel control. There stated goal is to attack Iran and Israel. Hizullah is against Israel and are supported by Bashar and Iran.

[aftertheflood]

Oh proxy, yeah. I'd wager that Iranians and Hizbullah are already in Syria fighting for the regime.

Wouldn't be too sure of that. It would be far more beneficial to the Islamists of Iran for the regime to fall. The ensuing vacuum or any fledgling democracy would be much easier for the Muslim nutters to take over.

[Fenris]

Wouldn't be too sure of that. It would be far more beneficial to the Islamists of Iran for the regime to fall.

Assad is Iran's best ally in the Arab world.

Syria is 74% Sunni Muslim. Iran is 95% Shia Muslim. if the fundamentalists come to power in Syria I kinda doubt they are going to play nicely with Iran.

[Reynolds357]

Assad is Iran's best ally in the Arab world.

Syria is 74% Sunni Muslim. Iran is 95% Shia Muslim. if the fundamentalists come to power in Syria I kinda doubt they are going to play nicely with Iran.

Iran definitely does not want to see regime change in Syria.