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Literalist-Luke
Oct 21st 2008, 04:55 PM
http://aotearoaawiderperspective.wordpress.com/2008/05/25/the-great-depression-number-2/

This is a short article about why we might be in for even tougher times than during the "Great Depression" of the early 30's. Pretty sobering stuff.

quiet dove
Oct 21st 2008, 05:07 PM
Alrighty Luke, we will be needing description of what to expect on that there link. :)

Literalist-Luke
Oct 21st 2008, 05:44 PM
Alrighty Luke, we will be needing description of what to expect on that there link. :)Sorry, I don't post many links, so I forgot that. Hopefully got it fixed now. :D

Literalist-Luke
Oct 21st 2008, 05:54 PM
Do any of you economists out there have any idea how much bigger the credit bubble in our present economy is compared to the one that popped in 1929 and shortly thereafter? I know it's a lot bigger today, but I want to know how much bigger, like maybe in a percentage or something else specific.

moonglow
Oct 21st 2008, 07:06 PM
Do any of you economists out there have any idea how much bigger the credit bubble in our present economy is compared to the one that popped in 1929 and shortly thereafter? I know it's a lot bigger today, but I want to know how much bigger, like maybe in a percentage or something else specific.

I can add two plus two! :cool: I sent a PM to someone that understands this kind of stuff in depth...

There were a number of things different back then that isn't happening now that I think will make a huge difference. We haven't been experiences a major drought for one thing! Alot more farmers then...or should I say, alot more people depending on farming back then so when crops failed that was it for them. Now when crops fails the government helps those farmers out so even a few bad years doesn't result in something this major. The failed crops also caused a food shortage. These people literally lived off their farms alone. The money they did get from their crops then of course went for buying other things. But farmers were never rich by any means. Another problem was that was all they knew how to do! Now farmers work computers, run monster machines and can move onto other kinds of work without alot or any training.

Also on top of this was the great dust bowls which we aren't having now. Because they cut down far too many trees and had no wind breaks like they do now (a wind break is a straight line of trees left uncut around crops and many times by rivers and creeks too, to block the wind). We see wind breaks like this here. We can't drive out of town here without seeing fields and wind breaks actually. Kansas is very windy and was one of the hardest hit by the dust bowl days...they learned their lesson after that. Not only did they need the trees to stop the wind from blowing away the top soil it also protects the crops and any livestock they might have. The wind here especially in the winter can be deadly to live stock and bring the wind chill down quite alot!

Anyway alot of live stock also died simply because of the dust! When the dust would come in they had no way to get out of it and would suffocate on it. So then the farmers not only lost their field through drought, but lost their live stock which could have been money and food for them. Now life stock are more protected by these wind breaks.

So we don't have a major drought going on in many states like they did...we don't have food shortage and we aren't experiencing dust bowls...and we don't have disease such as TB, polio and other things running rampant either like they were also experiences then. It was really, really bad for them. Starvation, homeless, disease and a war going on. I would have not liked to have lived back then for sure. It seems the ones that suffered the most were the migrant workers that went from farm to farm getting paid for picking their crops. They had no education and no other work experience to really fall back on.

http://www.english.uiuc.edu/maps/depression/depression.htm
The Great Depression

I think this is the same link you had with the photo gallery only this is the home page that explains how it all happened and the other things going on at the time.

Oh I noticed something odd in one of those pictures on your link...there was a posted saying something like "The secret love life of Hitler" . Apparently they had rag magazines back then too...:cool: Like who would care when you were going through all of that!!!

God bless

Veretax
Oct 21st 2008, 08:18 PM
Two problems. First I have read that some southern areas, like South Carolina and Georgia (among others) Were struggling with water shortages in the last year or two. I don't know if that situation has changed or not.

Secondly, without household farms, when businesses have to start laying workers off the computer worker, or service professional, won't have a job to stand on. If the Banks were to fail, then would things like debit cards and check systems start to fail as well? You could have mass panic if people can't get access to their cash. We may not have TB or Polio as rampant, but there are other diseases that could cause problems. INfluenza being one of them.


Also let's not forget this Crash is still a recent phenomena, the economy didn't hit rock bottom yet.

Personally, I've suggested the Dow could fall to somewhere jsut north of 6000 before a true correction to normal growth could begin. I hope I'm wrong on that though.

Saved7
Oct 21st 2008, 11:22 PM
Wow, I heard this might take place sooner or later, but here it is....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnnOOo6tRs8&eurl=http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/251952/Tent_City_Numbers_Expected_To_Increase_Nationwide_ As_Foreclosure_Crisis_Grows

living in tents.

And Colorado has been having a water shortage, because of little rain, now even Michigan is experiencing these same conditions, their water levels have been getting increasiningly lower of the last several years.

quiet dove
Oct 22nd 2008, 12:14 AM
Two problems. First I have read that some southern areas, like South Carolina and Georgia (among others) Were struggling with water shortages in the last year or two. I don't know if that situation has changed or not.

Secondly, without household farms, when businesses have to start laying workers off the computer worker, or service professional, won't have a job to stand on. If the Banks were to fail, then would things like debit cards and check systems start to fail as well? You could have mass panic if people can't get access to their cash. We may not have TB or Polio as rampant, but there are other diseases that could cause problems. INfluenza being one of them.


Also let's not forget this Crash is still a recent phenomena, the economy didn't hit rock bottom yet.

Personally, I've suggested the Dow could fall to somewhere jsut north of 6000 before a true correction to normal growth could begin. I hope I'm wrong on that though.

I know the lack of rain continues in GA, not sure about SC. They have both gotten some rain but I am thinking not as much as the needed to correct the situation.

moonglow
Oct 22nd 2008, 01:46 PM
Well Kansas...that was a victim of the dust bowls back then due to severe drought is above average this year on rain. Though the lower part of western Kansas has been in a severe drought for years. Though recently has been getting some rain, though I image it will take awhile to get it back to normal provided the rain continues. So here anyway we are doing ok.


God bless

Roelof
Oct 25th 2008, 01:46 PM
Do any of you economists out there have any idea how much bigger the credit bubble in our present economy is compared to the one that popped in 1929 and shortly thereafter? I know it's a lot bigger today, but I want to know how much bigger, like maybe in a percentage or something else specific.


The outstanding debt in the US is at the moment 270% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In 1929 it was 150%

(Translated from a newspaper)

Literalist-Luke
Oct 25th 2008, 04:40 PM
The outstanding debt in the US is at the moment 270% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In 1929 it was 150%

(Translated from a newspaper)Ouch. Thanks. http://i172.photobucket.com/albums/w40/litluke/scared.gif

ross3421
Oct 26th 2008, 06:58 AM
Also let's not forget this Crash is still a recent phenomena, the economy didn't hit rock bottom yet.

Personally, I've suggested the Dow could fall to somewhere jsut north of 6000 before a true correction to normal growth could begin. I hope I'm wrong on that though.

The dow was at 2000 in 1987 and 6000 in 2003. I believe we slide past the 6000 mark and closer to 1987 levels.

ross3421
Oct 26th 2008, 06:59 AM
Household debt is 53 trillion. National debt 11 trillion plus. Credit defalt swaps could be as high as 300 trillion..... You can't throw enogh money at the problem.

Throwing money at the problem only causes other problems, inflation, devaluation of the dollar, and the loss of our freedoms. Though we will first experience a period of deflation as companies try to survive it will eventually give way to run away inflation with our money back by nothing and the massive infusion to the money supply.

Usually our dollar would have crashed already with the printing presses 24/7 however we are having a global phenomenon. Everybody is printing money to survive and the world still thinks we are the strongest hence our dollar is rising. This too will reverse with all currencies to be rendered worthless in the near future.

The world will turn to their dear central banks (owned by private individuals) which should bring the the IMF and the world bank front and center. It will be a great time for a common currency as part of the solution. Why not.

Mark

Rocking horse
Oct 26th 2008, 10:16 AM
Well.....we're all in it together....

David161099
Oct 26th 2008, 02:57 PM
These days though there are a lot more interventions by the government into the economy.

Most of modern economic theory for Government comes from the Great Depression.

Sad to say but there are other countries and economies in the world run better than the USA at the moment. But what affects your country is so unique in terms of culture/history/politics.

Btw Australia paid it's national debt off in 2006. Apparently we still run an overall debt for securities or some such thing.

moonglow
Oct 26th 2008, 03:27 PM
CNN was saying that those that studied the Great Depression in the '30's saw that the government waited a long time before they finally stepped in to do something and because of that, this is why the government is stepping in so soon...to avoid it happening again...to not make the same mistakes again. Hopefully it will work. They said alot of the selling on the stock market, bringing it down, is mostly out of fear...people selling on emotions rather then fact...:rolleyes: Not a good thing to be doing.

But then they are encouraging buyers to buy now at these low prices...so when they go up, they will make quite a penny from it.

And lastly, this morning the news is saying its OUR fault we are in this mess! That people got use to fast and easy credit and owe more then they could ever possibly pay back! And this isn't just a few people either...but millions that have over charged their credit cards...people buying oversized homes because the banks told them they could but not 'thinking', gee I can't really afford this...

I remember a few years ago the news warning and warning people they were getting into major trouble with their credit cards...running up bills they could not afford to pay back. That no one is saving money now...or saving to buy what they want...just doing the.."I can get it now and pay later" with their credit cards. Because of all these warnings and many talk shows dealing with people who were in serious financial troubles due to credit cards, I didn't even get one until two years ago and then I only use it for emergencies. I use it so little I got a letter from them the other day saying they were lowering my max amount I could charge! lol. Which is fine with me. Still its so high if I ever charged that much, I would be paying it off the rest of my life! :eek:

So basically everyone just needs to get back off of cloud nine and realize they can't afford all this junk they wanted...it caused our whole economy to crash. Now how they are going to stop people from over charging...I have no idea...:rolleyes: (maybe start with NOT mailing the family dog a credit card...:cool:)

God bless

Veretax
Oct 26th 2008, 03:30 PM
The Giant "Government" Is trying to ease the economy as it falls. There's just one problem, holding up and intervening is only resulting in delaying the bottom falling. Meanwhile, more and more will be lost and more suffering caused because of it.

ross3421
Oct 27th 2008, 12:56 AM
CNN was saying that those that studied the Great Depression in the '30's saw that the government waited a long time before they finally stepped in to do something and because of that, this is why the government is stepping in so soon...to avoid it happening again...to not make the same mistakes again. Hopefully it will work. They said alot of the selling on the stock market, bringing it down, is mostly out of fear...people selling on emotions rather then fact...:rolleyes: Not a good thing to be doing.

But then they are encouraging buyers to buy now at these low prices...so when they go up, they will make quite a penny from it.

And lastly, this morning the news is saying its OUR fault we are in this mess! That people got use to fast and easy credit and owe more then they could ever possibly pay back! And this isn't just a few people either...but millions that have over charged their credit cards...people buying oversized homes because the banks told them they could but not 'thinking', gee I can't really afford this...

I remember a few years ago the news warning and warning people they were getting into major trouble with their credit cards...running up bills they could not afford to pay back. That no one is saving money now...or saving to buy what they want...just doing the.."I can get it now and pay later" with their credit cards. Because of all these warnings and many talk shows dealing with people who were in serious financial troubles due to credit cards, I didn't even get one until two years ago and then I only use it for emergencies. I use it so little I got a letter from them the other day saying they were lowering my max amount I could charge! lol. Which is fine with me. Still its so high if I ever charged that much, I would be paying it off the rest of my life! :eek:

So basically everyone just needs to get back off of cloud nine and realize they can't afford all this junk they wanted...it caused our whole economy to crash. Now how they are going to stop people from over charging...I have no idea...:rolleyes: (maybe start with NOT mailing the family dog a credit card...:cool:)

God bless

Pehaps if we did not have to pay 30% or more of our paycheck to the government we would have more money.......

Look the increase in taxes and inflation year over year due to the debt burden of our government is a bigger issue than consumer debt. Without the ability to spend money in excess and "run up the bills" most business would not have enjoyed the high profits and would not be in business. We have a debt driven system and now we are seeing the effects of people pulling back not spending in excess and defults on these debts as people lose their jobs. If most were to lose their job they would not be able to pay their mortgage. We are in a death spiral.

There is much blame to go around, but a system based on credit is doomed to fail. Everybody is spending more than they make, government and consumers alike.

Mark.

danield
Oct 27th 2008, 02:33 AM
Well I for one think we might be in for difficult times in the coming years. I see this crisis hitting us two fold. One aspect of it is defiantly the credit crisis brought on by an over extension of credit to just about anyone who breaths. The banks felt they were smarter than Main Street, and hedged their bets with derivatives. When this market tanked it literally wiped out most of the capital on Wall Street with the assistance of those derivatives. Now this has left us with fragile US banks to continue the extremely easy credit the American consumer has had. And since we are the wealthiest country and biggest consumer on earth, when we experience a slow down the rest of the world gets hit hard.

The second fold that no one is really talking about is that our wealth has been deteriorating from jobs being shipped over seas, and the massive drain of cash to the Middle East for oil. This has created the tremendous deficit we are now experiencing. It does not take a rocket scientist to understand that we are in an adjusting period. The government has done an excellent job of saving us at the last moment from a complete meltdown, but it does not mean that we are not in for turbulent times in the future. The markets are reacting violently to any negative news. So anything that hits the radar as trouble sends the market down by decent percentages and rightfully so because there is real danger to loosing your investments. In the great depression the stock market went down 91% from its top to bottom.

Now if we are going to compare this collapse to the 29 collapse, I can not imagine it being any worse unless something biblical is attached to it. But in the end being broke is being broke in any era. And we have to remember we have not seen the down turn everyone is looking for. The consumer is still spending money where as in the great depression people were quickly laid off. I think it took a year for it to settle in Main Street so the jury is still out. I personally do not see that happening unless something tragic happens to the population, or if the Middle East somehow manipulates the price of crude way up which would drain the little money we have left directly to them. Don’t get me wrong, I do see a big slow down for sure, but not the level of a great depression yet!

Gods Child
Oct 27th 2008, 02:52 AM
I see the people within the world are getting more and more worried of a economic collapse and another Great Depression coming, But we as Christians do not need to be the ones holding the door open for the panic. Do we really need to be the ones running around crying the sky is falling...What shall we eat, what shall we drink...?

I know all of you put your trust in God, but I just wanted to send a reminder that we need not worry about any of these things.

Did not God provide Manna and water from a rock for the Israeli children.
Do we then believe that he would not provide food & water for us.

We need to believe God when he tells us;

Mat 6:30 Wherefore, if God so clothe the grass of the field, which to day is, and to morrow is cast into the oven, shall he not much more clothe you, O ye of little faith? 31 Therefore take no thought, saying, What shall we eat? or, What shall we drink? or, Wherewithal shall we be clothed? 32 (For after all these things do the Gentiles seek) for your heavenly Father knoweth that ye have need of all these things.33 But seek ye first the kingdom of God, and his righteousness; and all these things shall be added unto you.

danield
Oct 27th 2008, 03:24 AM
I do not think we should be opening the door to panic, but I also think we should realize the events that we are witnessing before us. It is important to understand the challenges we do face. I know we will have God’s help along the way, but if we are to cross the desert, we sure do need to fill our canteens. Case in point, many times during the great plagues, God instructed his people to make preparations to challenges of what was to come.

It reminds me of the joke of the man that was trapped on his roof in a flood. The first person that came by in a canoe and asked him to get in, and he said no that the lord was going to rescue him, then the next person came in an motor boat and told him to jump in. well his response was the same. The Lord will save me. Then a helicopter hovered over the man and dropped him a rope, and he just waved them off. Well, the man died and in heaven he asked God why he did not save him? And God replied, I sent you three men to rescue you and you sent them all away!

As for this thread, we have to accept that this world has seen some extremely turbulent times in the financial markets. There are going to be repercussions. Trying to understand the ramifications is important to many. Surely we should not worry because we know our faith will ultimately lie with the Lord, but if the Lord does send us a life line, I do think we should take it.

Gods Child
Oct 27th 2008, 10:38 AM
I do not think we should be opening the door to panic, but I also think we should realize the events that we are witnessing before us. It is important to understand the challenges we do face. I know we will have God’s help along the way, but if we are to cross the desert, we sure do need to fill our canteens. Case in point, many times during the great plagues, God instructed his people to make preparations to challenges of what was to come.

It reminds me of the joke of the man that was trapped on his roof in a flood. The first person that came by in a canoe and asked him to get in, and he said no that the lord was going to rescue him, then the next person came in an motor boat and told him to jump in. well his response was the same. The Lord will save me. Then a helicopter hovered over the man and dropped him a rope, and he just waved them off. Well, the man died and in heaven he asked God why he did not save him? And God replied, I sent you three men to rescue you and you sent them all away!

As for this thread, we have to accept that this world has seen some extremely turbulent times in the financial markets. There are going to be repercussions. Trying to understand the ramifications is important to many. Surely we should not worry because we know our faith will ultimately lie with the Lord, but if the Lord does send us a life line, I do think we should take it.

There are instances in the bible where God tells his people to stockpile for ruff times ahead.
As in the story of Joseph who God showed there would be 7 years of plenty followed by 7 years of famine. Joseph stockpiled during the 7 years of plenty to feed those during the 7 years of famine. He did this, because he listened to God when God told him to.

There are other instances where God did not tell them to stockpile, but God provided the food and water at the time that it was needed.
As with the children of Israel, when God gave them manna and also produced water from a rock at the time that they needed it.
The children of Israel were in the desert, but had no canteens of water and still God provided.

In either case; God provided for his Children, thus we can see he will also provide for us.

If God tells us to stockpile, then by all means that is what we should do.
If God does not tell us to stockpile, he will provide the food and water at the time when it is needed.

In all, we can trust God to keep his promise that He will provide.

Many times (within our human nature) we say; “What shall I do or what shall we do” and give no thought as to what God will do or what it is that God wants us to do. Thus we are putting our trust in ourselves and not in God.

As with, the story of the man on the roof. He did not ask God what he should do when the rescue people came and so he drowned.
If he would have only asked God when the canoe came, there would have been no need for the motor boat or helicopter, because He would have heard the Holy Spirit tell him to get in to the canoe if he would have only asked and listened. This man on the roof was going by his own accord and not by the Holy Spirit voice. This is the moral of the story.