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Thread: Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008-2016

  1. #1

    Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008-2016

    U.S. states increasingly require identification to vote an ostensive attempt to deter fraud that prompts complaints of selective disenfranchisement. Using a difference-in-differences design on a 1.3-billion-observations panel, we find the laws have no negative effect on registration or turnout, overall or for any group defined by race, gender, age, or party affiliation. These results hold through a large number of specifications and cannot be attributed to mobilization against the laws, measured by campaign contributions and self-reported political engagement. ID requirements have no effect on fraud either actual or perceived. Overall, our results suggest that efforts to reform voter ID laws may not have much impact on elections.
    Source (National Bureau of Economic Research study)

    Interesting read.
    "The spirit of liberty is the spirit which is not too sure that it is right."


  2. #2

    Re: Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008-201

    sorry wrong source its actually here
    "The spirit of liberty is the spirit which is not too sure that it is right."


  3. #3
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    Re: Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008-201

    Did you actually try to digest that article BU ? If so , Kudos to you because I would rather watch paint dry than attempt to comprehend that thing. And I'm sure the fact that this paper was from Harvard Business School professors has zero bearing on whatever it is they concluded. I'd rather read the instruction to a swingset for crying out loud. Wow.

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    Re: Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008-201

    Quote Originally Posted by Pbminimum View Post
    Did you actually try to digest that article BU ? If so , Kudos to you because I would rather watch paint dry than attempt to comprehend that thing. And I'm sure the fact that this paper was from Harvard Business School professors has zero bearing on whatever it is they concluded. I'd rather read the instruction to a swingset for crying out loud. Wow.
    Maybe CNN or MSNBC can clear it up for all the sheep

  5. #5

    Re: Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008-201

    Quote Originally Posted by Pbminimum View Post
    Did you actually try to digest that article BU ? If so , Kudos to you because I would rather watch paint dry than attempt to comprehend that thing. And I'm sure the fact that this paper was from Harvard Business School professors has zero bearing on whatever it is they concluded. I'd rather read the instruction to a swingset for crying out loud. Wow.
    Well, yes I did actually try to digest it and i'll probably read it at least once more this weekend. The conclusion is pretty clear and math free though, i'll reproduce it here:
    For all the heated debates around strict voter ID laws, our analysis of their effects obtains
    mostly null results. First, the fears that strict ID requirements would disenfranchise disadvantaged
    populations have not materialized. Second, contrary to the argument used by the Supreme Court in
    the 2008 case Crawford v. Marion County to uphold the constitutionality of one of the early strict
    ID laws, we find no significant impact on fraud or public confidence in election integrity. This
    result weakens the case for adopting such laws in the first place.
    Because states adopted strict ID laws only 2 to 12 years ago, our results should be interpreted
    with caution: we find negative participation effects neither in the first election after the adoption
    of the laws nor in following ones, but cannot rule out that such effects will arise in the future.
    Enforcement of the laws already varies across locations and could very well become more stringent
    over time, especially if polarization on the issue increases. So we do not see our results as the last
    13
    word on this matter – quite the opposite, we hope that they will provide guidance on the types
    of data and empirical strategies others can use to analyze the longer-run effects of the laws in a
    few years. For now, outdated voting technology and other limitations in the administration of U.S.
    elections decrease faith in them (Alvarez et al., 2012), but strict ID laws are unlikely to change that.
    At the same time, low and unequal participation represent real threats to democracy – but these may
    be more effectively addressed by reducing other barriers to voting, such as voter registration costs
    (Braconnier et al., 2017) or long travel and waiting time in areas with low polling station density
    (Cantoni, 2018).
    I'm not sure what conclusions anyone should expect from Harvard Business School & University of Bologna professors, but the above is the conclusion they arrived at, and they went though all the trouble of showing their work for their peers and the public to digest and verify. Correct or not it is several cuts above bald assertion and hysteria.
    "The spirit of liberty is the spirit which is not too sure that it is right."


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    Re: Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008-201

    Quote Originally Posted by BraveUlysesses View Post
    Well, yes I did actually try to digest it and i'll probably read it at least once more this weekend. The conclusion is pretty clear and math free though, i'll reproduce it here:


    I'm not sure what conclusions anyone should expect from Harvard Business School & University of Bologna professors, but the above is the conclusion they arrived at, and they went though all the trouble of showing their work for their peers and the public to digest and verify. Correct or not it is several cuts above bald assertion and hysteria.
    I have seen neither of these on here.

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    Re: Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008-201

    Quote Originally Posted by keck553 View Post
    Maybe CNN or MSNBC can clear it up for all the sheep
    I admit... I needed help with that one.

  8. #8

    Re: Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008-201

    Quote Originally Posted by keck553 View Post
    Maybe CNN or MSNBC can clear it up for all the sheep
    The paper is reproduced in full for your perusal & inspection in the link above which you can use to inform your opinions in a manner that is unfiltered by the media.
    "The spirit of liberty is the spirit which is not too sure that it is right."


  9. #9

    Re: Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008-201

    Quote Originally Posted by Pbminimum View Post
    I have seen neither of these on here.
    regardless, the work is presented there for you complicated math and all.
    "The spirit of liberty is the spirit which is not too sure that it is right."


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    Re: Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008-201

    Quote Originally Posted by BraveUlysesses View Post
    regardless, the work is presented there for you complicated math and all.
    At the end of the deal they are suggesting that strict voter i.d. has no effect on fraudulent voting. Common sense tells me otherwise.

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    Re: Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008-201

    Because we trust college professors so much...like the liberal media

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    Re: Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008-201

    Quote Originally Posted by BraveUlysesses View Post
    Thanks for posting! The abstract says it all, but here's a bit more TL;DR exerpts for anyone interested:

    • "Our findings complement existing studies comparing turnout in states with and without voter ID laws which have found either no effect (e.g., Mycoff et al., 2009; Erikson and Minnite, 2009; Highton, 2017) or negative effects (e.g., Alvarez et al., 2011; Government Accountability Office, 2014; Hajnal et al., 2017)."

    • "Our results suggest that efforts both to safeguard electoral integrity and enfranchise more voters may be better served through other reforms [...]"

    • [Conclusion]: "For all the heated debates around strict voter ID laws, our analysis of their effects obtains mostly null results. First, the fears that strict ID requirements would disenfranchise disadvantaged populations have not materialized. Second, contrary to the argument used by the Supreme Court in the 2008 case Crawford v. Marion County to uphold the constitutionality of one of the early strict ID laws, we find no significant impact on fraud or public confidence in election integrity. This result weakens the case for adopting such laws in the first place."

    Harvard subtly berating all of us for arguing over voter ID, lol.
    「耶和華聖潔無比,獨一無二,沒有磐石像我們的上帝。
    撒母耳記上 (1 Samuel) 2:2

  13. #13

    Re: Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008-201

    Quote Originally Posted by Pbminimum View Post
    At the end of the deal they are suggesting that strict voter i.d. has no effect on fraudulent voting. Common sense tells me otherwise.
    Quote Originally Posted by Aviyah View Post
    Thanks for posting! The abstract says it all, but here's a bit more TL;DR exerpts for anyone interested:

    • "Our findings complement existing studies comparing turnout in states with and without voter ID laws which have found either no effect (e.g., Mycoff et al., 2009; Erikson and Minnite, 2009; Highton, 2017) or negative effects (e.g., Alvarez et al., 2011; Government Accountability Office, 2014; Hajnal et al., 2017)."

    • "Our results suggest that efforts both to safeguard electoral integrity and enfranchise more voters may be better served through other reforms [...]"

    • [Conclusion]: "For all the heated debates around strict voter ID laws, our analysis of their effects obtains mostly null results. First, the fears that strict ID requirements would disenfranchise disadvantaged populations have not materialized. Second, contrary to the argument used by the Supreme Court in the 2008 case Crawford v. Marion County to uphold the constitutionality of one of the early strict ID laws, we find no significant impact on fraud or public confidence in election integrity. This result weakens the case for adopting such laws in the first place."

    Harvard subtly berating all of us for arguing over voter ID, lol.

    Lol Yep, I also found it truly interesting how they found that it didn’t even appear to affect perception, which inclines me to think of it as a sort of political perpetual motion machine.
    "The spirit of liberty is the spirit which is not too sure that it is right."


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    Re: Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008-201

    Liberal politically motivated trash doesnt change sound reasoning

  15. #15

    Re: Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008-201

    Quote Originally Posted by keck553 View Post
    Liberal politically motivated trash doesn’t change sound reasoning

    Okay, What are you even talking about Keck?
    "The spirit of liberty is the spirit which is not too sure that it is right."


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